Britain is entering a volatile new phase in the politics of climate action. Just days after Reform UK’s incredibly successful performance at May’s local elections, Reform’s deputy leader launched an extraordinary attack on what he has previously called “net stupid zero” infrastructure. Richard Tice said that “We will attack, we will hinder, we will delay, we will obstruct, we will put every hurdle in your way. It’s going to cost you a fortune, and you’re not going to win. So give up and go away.”

At the same time, the Labour government is under continued pressure from the left – to go faster and bolder. For UK businesses, especially those facing reputational and regulatory issues, the message is clear: don’t expect coherence – expect contradiction. And prepare accordingly.

With Reform UK boosted by May’s election wins, Reform UK’s fervent criticism of net zero, the party’s apparent polling lead, and Labour’s poor polling, it would be tempting to think we could be seeing the end of the push to meet the UK’s legally binding target to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Reform UK politicians, however, are not the only ones putting pressure on the embattled Labour government. The departing co-leader of the Greens in England and Wales, Carla Denyer, has reminded us of the challenge facing Labour at the other end of the climate change political spectrum. In an article in The Guardian, Denyer wrote that it was time for the Labour government to “wake up and grasp what’s in front of its eyes: thousands of skilled and knowledgeable workers – and a booming green energy industry just crying out for the government to tap into it”.

Yonder’s polling exposes the divide in the country that is reflected in the divergent views of Reform UK and Green politicians.

When asked whether ‘immediate action is required to tackle climate change’ or whether ‘action might be required to tackle climate change but it shouldn’t be an immediate priority’, Britain is split. Half of Britons (51%) think immediate action is required, but nearly a third (31%) think it shouldn’t be an immediate priority. The country is similarly divided when it comes to whether to sacrifice economic growth to live more sustainably. 31% think ‘we should be willing to sacrifice economic growth in order to live more sustainably’ but more (38%) think ‘economic growth must be prioritised even if it means delaying action on sustainability’.

And different voters have very different views. Likely Reform UK voters – who are older than voters of other parties – are most likely to have the more sceptical views. Just 36% of likely Reform UK voters think that ‘man-made climate change is the greatest threat to the future of our planet and urgent action is required to curb it’ (compared with 59% of Britons overall), and just 20% think that ‘we should be willing to sacrifice economic growth in order to live more sustainably’ (compared with 31% of Britons).

Labour, Green and Liberal Democrat voters, however, are very likely to believe that immediate action is required to tackle climate change. And the majority of Green voters and nearly half of Lib Dems think that we should be willing to sacrifice economic growth in order to live more sustainably.

But the Labour government will be particularly interested in the voters it has lost – those that voted Labour in 2024 but now say they are unlikely to do so again. When viewed as a single group, these voters are also split as the rest of the country: 34% of these Labour defectors think ‘we should be willing to sacrifice economic growth in order to live more sustainably’ and 30% think ‘economic growth must be prioritised even if it means delaying action on sustainability’.

Within these Labour defectors, however, there are quite different views. Defectors to Reform UK are more likely to say economic growth should be prioritised (42% to 26%) whereas Labour defectors to the left (to the Greens, Lib Dems, SNP or Plaid Cymru) are more likely to say we should be willing to sacrifice economic growth to live more sustainably (46% to 28%).

The Labour government will know that voters disagree about net zero. It will also know that the very broad coalition of voters that Labour attracted in 2024 is as divided as the rest of the country. That broad – and unstable – coalition means there is no easy way to navigate voters’ various hopes and concerns relating to decarbonisation and net zero. And so, the most likely scenario would seem to be – as so often in politics – messy compromise and continued uncertainty. Businesses need to prepare for that. After all – despite Reform’s success in some parts of England – the UK Government remains legally obliged to bring all greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050.

In this fractured political environment, where the path to net zero is being both demanded and attacked, businesses must resist the temptation to wait for clarity from government. That clarity may never come. A Labour government under pressure from all sides could – as it attempts to win back the voters it needs to stay in government beyond 2029 – prevaricate and give mixed messages.

Instead, companies should focus on what they can control. Consistency in communication, clarity of purpose and credible action are all crucial. But we also know that by focusing on authenticity, audience and advantage, corporate affairs professionals can position their organisations not just to weather the uncertainty – but to lead through it.

• Authenticity – are you clear about your purpose and what you fundamentally believe?
• Audience – who are your audience(s), what do they need and how can you connect with them?
• Advantage – what can you do or offer that is clearly superior to your competitors?

Net zero may be a legal target on the horizon, but trust, relevance, and public confidence will be earned in the meantime. Having clarity in your purpose, your audience and your competitive advantage will ensure confidence in the decisions that will need to be made as the UK continues its zig-zagging path towards net zero.